Production Forecast Reviews

Using Hydraulic Fracture Modeling to Understand Production Uncertainty

Unconventional Resource development has many challenges. The difficulty in using reservoir simulation to plan well-pad developments is one the biggest. Instead Type Curves are often used to predict what an adjacent or step-out pad will produce. But what if the geology looks different, how to do account for this in adjusting your type curve expectations?

At COMPLETIONS GEOSCIENCE we believe Hydraulic Fracture Modelling can be a valuable tool to testing the applicability of field type curves to a new pad. Here is why we think that.

The Business Problem:

Reserves are calculated based off of type curves (decline curves) but the link between reservoir properties (geology) and type curves is typically poor. This means that is hard to reliably forecast expected performance away from developed areas. The P10-50-90 therefore does not represent the true “field” range. The risks associated with this inability to link between “geology” and performance include failure to properly value assets, failure to meet production guidance, in-ability to effectively evaluate exploration and M&A opportunities

The Technical Challenge:

The ability to use numerical simulation to establish the link between reservoir properties and performance is challenged by the inability to know the size of contacted reservoir. This inability is rooted in a lack of understanding/evidence on what the hydraulic fracture geometry in brittle, often naturally fractured, reservoirs actually is and how much of the fracture area generated is connected and capable of flowing to the well

The Solution:

Given this uncertainty on fracture area and geometry, the critical tool to improve the link between reservoir properties and performance is hydraulic fracture modelling.

If you are interesting in learning more about how we can help you with type curves please get in touch for a free introductory consultation.

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